Despite the 'historic supermajority' framing, Takaichi holds no national referendum on Article 9 — and no referendum is even formally scheduled — before the summer 2028 House of Councillors election. Her signature constitutional project is deferred, not delivered.
Strongest counter — She could cut a deal with the DPP and other revision-curious parties, or use her popularity to pressure defectors. It survives: even generous counts of pro-revision votes in the upper house fall short of two-thirds, and with only half the chamber up in 2028 she cannot manufacture the majority before then — the arithmetic, not the will, is binding. The claim is downgraded from 'never' to a 2028-bounded call, which is what the evidence cleanly supports.
Wrong if — a national referendum on revising Article 9 (or any constitutional article) is held, or formally scheduled by Diet initiation, before 2028-07-31.